Kumbh Mela is the largest religious festival in the world, and involves the pilgrimage of some 100 million Hindus to a sacred river. The next festival will take place in Ujjain in 2016. Unfortunately, many of the previous versions of this event have been marred by accidents and deaths. Human crowds are complex adaptive systems, making predicting their behaviour challenging. The Kumbh Mela Experiment combines geoinformatics and remote sensing with computational science. The project will develop sophisticated methods and algorithms to aid planners and event managers in managing such extremely large crowds.
The planned data collection process will involve three disparate data sources, wrist-bands, cell phone (CDRS analysis) and video recordings. Each of these raw data sources will require completely different methods of processing, and the resulting analysis will likely be at different spatial and temporal scales. Some of the data sources – because of the nature of the collection process or the complexity of the analysis – will lend themselves more easily to real-time processing (or at least very low latency). Finally, the idea will be to fuse the data sources with three goals in minds. Firstly, the data feeds can be used to examine patterns in the crowd and look for early warning signals of impending danger. Secondly, this data will provide information on human crowds at unprecedented scale and resolution. This can lead to fundamentally new understanding of the dynamics of human crowds, for example identifying the densities at which the impact of individual behaviour on macro level dynamics start to diminish (learning whether this happens as a form of phase transition). Finally, the data should be used as input to the simulations.
| 1. | Ashish Verma Meghna Verma, Punyabeet Sarangi Vivek Yadav Manoj M Activity participation, episode duration and stop-making behavior of pilgrims in a religious event: An exploratory analysis Journal Article Journal of Choice Modelling , pp. 1755-5345, 2021. Abstract | BibTeX | Links:   @article{@ashish,
title = {Activity participation, episode duration and stop-making behavior of pilgrims in a religious event: An exploratory analysis },
author = {Ashish Verma,Meghna Verma, Punyabeet Sarangi,Vivek Yadav, Manoj M},
url = {https://cps.iisc.ac.in/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Ashish-Verma-publication.pdf},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jocm.2021.100267 },
year = {2021},
date = {2021-01-11},
journal = {Journal of Choice Modelling },
pages = {1755-5345},
abstract = {Activity travel pattern of pilgrims in a religious setting is a complex process. Extant literature on religious tourism has taken minimal efforts in addressing such complexity, which has led to a paucity of information on preferred activity participation destinations and trip chain sequences of pilgrims. So, the present research objective is two-fold. First, to examine the causal effects of socio-demographics and daily local temperature on activity participation, trip chain type, and time allocation of individuals using structural equation modeling (SEM) that can help identify the dominant activity patterns. Second is to explore the impact of socio-demographic variables and activity patterns on the propensity of stop-making behavior using an ordered logit (OL) framework to better plan and manage the influx of flows. The primary data was collected using an activity-travel diary by taking the case study of the Kumbh Mela event, which is considered as the world’s largest mass religious gathering, held at Ujjain, India, in 2016. From the results, it is observed that Males have a lower tendency to take multiple stops for primary religious activities and have simple trip chains. An increase in the members of a family visiting Kumbh decreases their overall time spent across various activities. As the mercury (temperature) rises, it reduces tourist’s participation in recreational and discretionary activities. Individuals who participate in primary and secondary religious activities tend to spend more time at Kumbh as compared to individuals who primarily visit for recreational purposes. These empirical findings provide meaningful insights for managing large religious events. },
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pubstate = {published},
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Activity travel pattern of pilgrims in a religious setting is a complex process. Extant literature on religious tourism has taken minimal efforts in addressing such complexity, which has led to a paucity of information on preferred activity participation destinations and trip chain sequences of pilgrims. So, the present research objective is two-fold. First, to examine the causal effects of socio-demographics and daily local temperature on activity participation, trip chain type, and time allocation of individuals using structural equation modeling (SEM) that can help identify the dominant activity patterns. Second is to explore the impact of socio-demographic variables and activity patterns on the propensity of stop-making behavior using an ordered logit (OL) framework to better plan and manage the influx of flows. The primary data was collected using an activity-travel diary by taking the case study of the Kumbh Mela event, which is considered as the world’s largest mass religious gathering, held at Ujjain, India, in 2016. From the results, it is observed that Males have a lower tendency to take multiple stops for primary religious activities and have simple trip chains. An increase in the members of a family visiting Kumbh decreases their overall time spent across various activities. As the mercury (temperature) rises, it reduces tourist’s participation in recreational and discretionary activities. Individuals who participate in primary and secondary religious activities tend to spend more time at Kumbh as compared to individuals who primarily visit for recreational purposes. These empirical findings provide meaningful insights for managing large religious events. |
| 2. | Gayarthi, H; Gulhare, Siddhartha; Verma, Ashish Characteristics of stop and go wave in one dimensional interrupted pedestrian flow through narrow channel Journal Article Collective Dynamics, pp. A18:1-14, 2019. Abstract | BibTeX | Links: @article{Gayarthi2019,
title = {Characteristics of stop and go wave in one dimensional interrupted pedestrian flow through narrow channel},
author = {H. Gayarthi and Siddhartha Gulhare and Ashish Verma},
url = {http://www.rbccps.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/34-296-1-PB.pdf},
doi = {10.17815/CD.2018.18},
year = {2019},
date = {2019-01-12},
journal = {Collective Dynamics},
pages = {A18:1-14},
abstract = {Pedestrian microscopic simulation models can aid crowd management only if they can reproduce the crowd behavior correctly. To calibrate and validate the model, it is important to understand crowd movement during various activities involved in mass gathering events. A common practice in such gathering is to hold attendees in waiting area in near corridors separated by crowd barriers before the event and allow entering the event only after a designated time. The crowd is released in small batches to avoid overcrowding inside. Long waiting hours, anger, excitement, competitive feeling etc. can make crowd aggressive during such entries. Crowd flow characteristics due to such behavior is difficult to recreate in pedestrian experimental studies in laboratory setting. This paper studied interrupted flow of such crowd through a narrow corridors made of strong railing channel inside a temple. Interrupted flow lead to formation of one dimensional stop and go waves. These stop and go waves were studied from the trajectory data. The average speed of waves propagating over longer distance were also estimated. The quantitative output from this study can be used to calibrate and validate simulation models of such activity during mass gathering events.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Pedestrian microscopic simulation models can aid crowd management only if they can reproduce the crowd behavior correctly. To calibrate and validate the model, it is important to understand crowd movement during various activities involved in mass gathering events. A common practice in such gathering is to hold attendees in waiting area in near corridors separated by crowd barriers before the event and allow entering the event only after a designated time. The crowd is released in small batches to avoid overcrowding inside. Long waiting hours, anger, excitement, competitive feeling etc. can make crowd aggressive during such entries. Crowd flow characteristics due to such behavior is difficult to recreate in pedestrian experimental studies in laboratory setting. This paper studied interrupted flow of such crowd through a narrow corridors made of strong railing channel inside a temple. Interrupted flow lead to formation of one dimensional stop and go waves. These stop and go waves were studied from the trajectory data. The average speed of waves propagating over longer distance were also estimated. The quantitative output from this study can be used to calibrate and validate simulation models of such activity during mass gathering events. |
| 3. | Gulhare, Siddhartha; Verma, Ashish; Chakroborty, Partha Comparison of pedestrian data of single file movement collected from controlled pedestrian experiment and from field in mass religious gathering Journal Article Collective Dynamics, 3 , pp. A16: 1-14, 2018. Abstract | BibTeX | Links: @article{Gulhare2018,
title = {Comparison of pedestrian data of single file movement collected from controlled pedestrian experiment and from field in mass religious gathering},
author = {Siddhartha Gulhare and Ashish Verma and Partha Chakroborty},
url = {http://www.rbccps.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/27-278-1-PB.pdf},
doi = {10.17815/CD.2018.16},
year = {2018},
date = {2018-05-04},
journal = {Collective Dynamics},
volume = {3},
pages = {A16: 1-14},
abstract = {Managing and controlling crowd during mass religious gathering is a challenge for organizers. With good computational capabilities, it is possible to create tools to simulate crowd in real time to aid crowd management. These tools need to be first calibrated and validated with pedestrian empirical data. The empirical data collection from field is difficult and therefore, data collection through controlled pedestrian experiments have become a convenient substitute. However, the ability of experiment data to reproduce actual crowd behavior needs to be examined. This study compared the experiment data with field data collected from mass religious gathering named Kumbh Mela held in India, 2016. The single file movement (pedestrians moving along a single line; SFM) experiment was conducted and its results were compared with the field SFM results. The speed in the field was found to be generally higher than in the experiment for a given density. The results clearly indicate that the pedestrians in the field are motivated to achieve a purpose but participants in the experiments lack the motivation. The pedestrian dynamics of the experiment was found to be different from the field. Hence, the results of pedestrian experiments should not be extrapolated to understand panic, crowd risk situations.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Managing and controlling crowd during mass religious gathering is a challenge for organizers. With good computational capabilities, it is possible to create tools to simulate crowd in real time to aid crowd management. These tools need to be first calibrated and validated with pedestrian empirical data. The empirical data collection from field is difficult and therefore, data collection through controlled pedestrian experiments have become a convenient substitute. However, the ability of experiment data to reproduce actual crowd behavior needs to be examined. This study compared the experiment data with field data collected from mass religious gathering named Kumbh Mela held in India, 2016. The single file movement (pedestrians moving along a single line; SFM) experiment was conducted and its results were compared with the field SFM results. The speed in the field was found to be generally higher than in the experiment for a given density. The results clearly indicate that the pedestrians in the field are motivated to achieve a purpose but participants in the experiments lack the motivation. The pedestrian dynamics of the experiment was found to be different from the field. Hence, the results of pedestrian experiments should not be extrapolated to understand panic, crowd risk situations. |
| 4. | Karthika, P S; Aparna, P M; Verma, Ashish Understanding crowd dynamics at Ghat regions during world's largest mass religious gathering, Kumbh Mela Journal Article International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 31 , pp. 918-925, 2018. Abstract | BibTeX | Links: @article{Karthika2018,
title = {Understanding crowd dynamics at Ghat regions during world's largest mass religious gathering, Kumbh Mela},
author = {P. S. Karthika and P. M. Aparna and Ashish Verma},
doi = {10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.08.005},
year = {2018},
date = {2018-10-01},
journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction},
volume = {31},
pages = {918-925},
abstract = {In this paper a porous flow approach on a cul de sac is proposed to understand the dynamics of crowd at ghat regions (banks of the sacred river) in mass religious gatherings. Kumbh Mela, one of the mankind's largest religious gathering encompassing almost all possible crowd scenarios, provides a unique opportunity to explore the crowd dynamics along all facets. Here, Cul-de-sac refers to the ghat region where people gather with the intention to take holy dip. The data used for this study was collected during Kumbh Mela held during 22nd April to 21st May 2016. Visual observations from the video data shows a high degree of complexity probably due to the nature of activities at the study location, e.g., lane formation, creeping behavior etc. The proposed porous flow approach divides the entire study area into pores, and it is assumed that pilgrims traverse this network through interconnected vacant pores. The pedestrian data from video sequences (entry time, exit time, and flow) is extracted manually and time series analysis of pore occupancy is done to get an approximate measure of local density. Further, using Poisson regression analysis it was found that both the inflow and the duration of holy dip are significant factors in influencing the number of arrivals into the pore. Since behavioral aspects of a pedestrian is a significant governing factor of crowd dynamics, these microscopic parameters can be used to get a measure of criticality of the system in terms of crowd risk.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
In this paper a porous flow approach on a cul de sac is proposed to understand the dynamics of crowd at ghat regions (banks of the sacred river) in mass religious gatherings. Kumbh Mela, one of the mankind's largest religious gathering encompassing almost all possible crowd scenarios, provides a unique opportunity to explore the crowd dynamics along all facets. Here, Cul-de-sac refers to the ghat region where people gather with the intention to take holy dip. The data used for this study was collected during Kumbh Mela held during 22nd April to 21st May 2016. Visual observations from the video data shows a high degree of complexity probably due to the nature of activities at the study location, e.g., lane formation, creeping behavior etc. The proposed porous flow approach divides the entire study area into pores, and it is assumed that pilgrims traverse this network through interconnected vacant pores. The pedestrian data from video sequences (entry time, exit time, and flow) is extracted manually and time series analysis of pore occupancy is done to get an approximate measure of local density. Further, using Poisson regression analysis it was found that both the inflow and the duration of holy dip are significant factors in influencing the number of arrivals into the pore. Since behavioral aspects of a pedestrian is a significant governing factor of crowd dynamics, these microscopic parameters can be used to get a measure of criticality of the system in terms of crowd risk. |
| 5. | Gayarthi, H; Aparna, P M; Verma, Ashish A review of studies on understanding crowd dynamics in the context of crowd safety in mass religious gatherings Journal Article International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2017. Abstract | BibTeX | Links: @article{Gayarthi2017,
title = {A review of studies on understanding crowd dynamics in the context of crowd safety in mass religious gatherings},
author = {H. Gayarthi and P. M. Aparna and Ashish Verma},
url = {http://www.rbccps.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/1-s2.0-S2212420917302212-main.pdf},
doi = {10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.07.017},
year = {2017},
date = {2017-08-03},
journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction},
abstract = {Understanding the principles and applications of crowd dynamics in mass gatherings is very important, specifically with respect to crowd risk analysis and crowd safety. Historical trends from India and other countries suggest that the stampedes in mass gatherings, especially in religious events occur frequently highlighting the importance of studying the crowd behaviour more scientifically. This is required to support appropriate and timely crowd management principles, in the planning of crowd control measures and provision of early warning systems at mass gatherings. Common pedestrian behaviours in crowd like group formation, self-organization, leader follower effect, queue formation and bottleneck conditions have substantial influence on crowd dynamics. It is important not to let a single aspect go overlooked with respect to mass gatherings since it can lead to major stampedes. Kumbh Mela, one of the largest mass religious gatherings in the world, features these different crowd scenarios observed often in the same event area and thus provides a unique opportunity to study the crowd behaviour in a holistic way. Understanding these pedestrian behaviours and having a clear understanding of the normal behaviour may provide opportunities to change crowd dynamics and overcome the adverse effects resulting in safer mass religious gatherings in future. This paper provides an exhaustive review of the current understanding of crowd dynamics and explores the modelling techniques that are available to enhance crowd safety. The purpose of this literature review is to improve the understanding of crowd dynamics,and highlight the research gaps in the context of crowd safety in mass religious gatherings like Kumbh Mela.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Understanding the principles and applications of crowd dynamics in mass gatherings is very important, specifically with respect to crowd risk analysis and crowd safety. Historical trends from India and other countries suggest that the stampedes in mass gatherings, especially in religious events occur frequently highlighting the importance of studying the crowd behaviour more scientifically. This is required to support appropriate and timely crowd management principles, in the planning of crowd control measures and provision of early warning systems at mass gatherings. Common pedestrian behaviours in crowd like group formation, self-organization, leader follower effect, queue formation and bottleneck conditions have substantial influence on crowd dynamics. It is important not to let a single aspect go overlooked with respect to mass gatherings since it can lead to major stampedes. Kumbh Mela, one of the largest mass religious gatherings in the world, features these different crowd scenarios observed often in the same event area and thus provides a unique opportunity to study the crowd behaviour in a holistic way. Understanding these pedestrian behaviours and having a clear understanding of the normal behaviour may provide opportunities to change crowd dynamics and overcome the adverse effects resulting in safer mass religious gatherings in future. This paper provides an exhaustive review of the current understanding of crowd dynamics and explores the modelling techniques that are available to enhance crowd safety. The purpose of this literature review is to improve the understanding of crowd dynamics,and highlight the research gaps in the context of crowd safety in mass religious gatherings like Kumbh Mela. |
